March Madness: Odds, Predictions, and Picks for Tonight’s St. John’s vs. Duke Sweet 16 Game

(AsiaGameHub) –   March Madness is set to continue tonight with four additional Sweet 16 matchups, kicking off with No. 5 St. John’s facing off against No. 1 Duke. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.

DraftKings lists Duke as a 6.5-point favorite with a combined total of 140.5 points as of publication. Sixty-four percent of spread handle and 64% of tickets are backing St. John’s. The Red Storm are a popular underdog bet, but the Blue Devils hold the No. 1 defense in the nation per KenPom.

We cashed a winning ticket last night by parlaying the OVER bet for Texas vs. Purdue with Fletcher Loyer scoring at least 15 points.

Best Against-the-Spread Pick for St. John’s vs. Duke

Blue Devils -6.5 (-108)

Duke’s defense is dominant. The Blue Devils stepped up their play in the second half of their Round of 32 matchup against TCU, limiting the Horned Frogs to just 24 total points.

Duke advanced to the Sweet 16 without starting point guard Caleb Foster (foot injury), but head coach Jon Scheyer announced he may return to the lineup tonight.

Center Patrick Ngongba II returned from his own foot-related absence against TCU, and his presence will be critical tonight in slowing down Zuby Ejiofor in the paint. The Big East Player of the Year averages 16.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. 

Duke’s Cameron Boozer is a frontrunner for the Wooden Award. Boozer leads Duke with averages of 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. But this game will be won (and covered against the spread) primarily by Duke’s defensive effort.

The Blue Devils hold a massive height advantage that will prevent St. John’s from operating effectively near the basket. That level of rim protection will lead to longer-range shot attempts and fewer free-throw opportunities for the Red Storm.

Duke also ranks fourth nationally in rebound rate (57.9%), so don’t expect many second-chance scoring opportunities for St. John’s tonight.

If the Johnnies hope to find success from beyond the arc, they will face a Duke defense that limits opponents to just 30.5% three-point shooting. That places the Blue Devils 20th in the nation for that defensive metric.

Pick: Duke -6.5

Top Player Prop Bet for Duke Blue Devils

Patrick Ngongba II OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)

Ngongba saw just 13 minutes of play against TCU in his first game back after missing six games due to foot issues. He still managed to pull down four rebounds coming off the bench.

Expect his playing time and rebound total to rise tonight against St. John’s, which ranks 147th nationally in field goal percentage at just 45.2%. There will be ample opportunities for him on the defensive glass.

Standing at 6-foot-11, Ngongba should have a field day against St. John’s smaller lineup.

Top Player Prop Bet for St. John’s Red Storm

Dylan Darling UNDER 6.5 Points (-130 at FanDuel)

Dylan Darling emerged as a hero with a buzzer-beating game-winner against Kansas, but that was the only basket he scored in that contest.

Darling has finished under this prop total in four of his last five games, largely due to his poor three-point shooting. He has gone 1-for-21 from three-point range over that stretch.

Given Duke’s elite perimeter defense, it’s difficult to see Darling surpassing this total tonight.